Why Policy Makers in BiH Should Increase Tobacco Excise Taxes

This Policy Brief was written by University of Banja Luka (UBL) in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The policy brief estimates the impact of raising tobacco taxes on tax revenues, public health, and youth smoking initiation. Specifically, the researchers simulate a 15% increase in the specific excise tax in 2024 and 2025. This would decrease the number of packs sold between 0.3% and 2.6%, while increasing total tax revenue between BAM 118 million and 154 million. Adult smoking prevalence, currently at 41.1%, would decrease to 37.4% by 2025 as a result of this price increase and between 8,067 and 16,595 youth would not initiate smoking. This reduction in consumption would prevent between 10,647 and 21,175 premature deaths annually. The policy brief concludes with recommendations for policy makers to increase the tobacco excise tax and reap these benefits.