Potential Effects on Tobacco Tax Revenues of a Ban on the Sale of Flavored Tobacco Products

This Report was written by Frank J. Chaloupka. The report uses emerging evidence to evaluate the potential effects of a a ban on the sale of flavored tobacco products on tobacco tax revenue. The author assesses research on the potential and actual impact of such a policy. Given that Canada implemented a comprehensive national ban on the sale of menthol cigarettes in 2017, the report focuses on research that studies their experience. Chaloupka models the impact of a comprehensive flavor ban on tax revenues and public health using this evidence. The findings show that a comprehensive flavor ban would lead to a reduction in tobacco tax revenue, but improve public health as a result of the decrease in tobacco use. Over 650,000 adults would quit smoking as a result of the ban and young people would be deterred from initiating smoking. The lowered consumption would decrease the cost of health care for governments and the smokers, themselves. The report concludes that a ban on the sale of flavored tobacco products would have financial and public health benefits in the long-term, despite any loss in revenue from tobacco taxes.