Modeling the Impacts of Tobacco Tax Increases in Montenegro: A Simulation Model [Technical Note]

This Technical Note was written by the Institute for Socio-Economic Analysis (ISEA) in Montenegro. The technical note presents a simulation model that assesses the impact of tobacco tax increases on tobacco consumption, government revenues, smoking prevalence, and averted premature deaths. The researchers consider the effects of excise tax increases annually under two scenarios. The findings suggest that raising the specific excise tax on tobacco to 51 euros per 1,000 cigarettes would prevent 1,685 smoking-related deaths, as 1,037 adults would quit smoking tobacco and 648 youths would not initiate use. At the same time, tax revenues would increase by 2.4%, on average. The technical note concludes with recommendations for policy makers to raise tobacco taxes and strengthen tobacco control to improve public health while raising revenues.