Research

Impacts of Tobacco Tax Increases on Tax Revenues and Public Health in Serbia

This Technical Note was written by the Institute of Economic Sciences (IES) in Serbia. The technical note estimates the impact of an excise tobacco tax increase on tobacco consumption, tax revenues, premature deaths, and youth smoking initiation. Specifically, the authors consider the impact of increasing the excise tax by 15% annually, thus raising cigarette prices by 9.7% in the first year (2024) and 10.6% in the second year (2025). The findings suggest that this would reduce tobacco consumption by 4.7% and 5.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. 95,374 smokers would avoid premature death over the course of their lifetimes as a result. Furthermore, 17,147 youth would not initiate smoking due to these tax increases. Despite the reduction in tobacco use, total tax revenues would increase by 6.6% in both years. The technical note concludes with recommendations for policy makers to improve tobacco tax policies to raise additional tax revenue while reaping public health benefits.