Case Studies in Illicit Tobacco Trade: Montenegro

This Fact Sheet was written by the Tobacconomics team. The fact sheet assesses the size and trends in the illicit cigarette market in Montenegro as well as the factors that increase the likelihood of their purchase among smokers. Findings show that the illicit market is sizable relative to other countries in the region, but is shrinking. Between 2019 and 2022, the share of the illicit cigarette market decreased from 51% in 2019 to between 22.1% and 26% in 2022. In that time period, the government improved tax administration by prohibiting the storage of cigarettes in Port of Bar, a free-trade zone, and increased surveillance and strengthened enforcement. The researchers also find that unemployed, low-income, and over the age of 25 smokers are more likely to buy illicit cigarettes. The fact sheet concludes with recommendations for policy makers to continue to decrease the size of the illicit market by investing in tax administration measures, implementing a track-and-trace system, and targeting cessation and awareness campaigns towards smokers that are more likely to use illicit cigarettes. 

A corresponding Report can be found here.